The Dog Days of Augustine? Panel Delivers Grim Outlook on Constellation Budgeting August 13, 2009
Posted by Nick Azer in : Augustine Panel, economy, NASA, Obama , 1 comment so far
The Obama-initiated, Norm Augustine-led Human Space Flight review panel has delivered a sobering, pessimistic take on the future of Constellation budgeting:
“The money available has declined considerably since the program began…On the other hand, the Constellation program has proven to be more difficult than it was thought to be. It will be difficult with the current budget to do anything that’s terribly inspiring in the human spaceflight area.” -Norm Augustine (as reported by the Orlando Sentinel)
The panel has concluded that at least an additional $3 billion a year would be needed for NASA to return to the Moon by 2030.
“We are on a path right now, for a system that requires [roughly] double the current budget just to operate. If Santa Claus brought us this [Constellation] system tomorrow, fully developed, and the budget didn’t change, our next action would have to be to cancel it.”- Panel member Jeff Greason (as reported by the Orlando Sentinel)
Considering the economic climate, $3 billion more a year seems extremely unlikely to me (and others), so it looks like reform to Constellation will be on the way, if not outright cancellation or replacement.
If not Constellation’s current path…what, then?
“As president, Barack Obama will establish a robust and balanced civilian space program… In achieving this vision, Obama will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA’s reach. Obama believes that a revitalized NASA can help America maintain its innovation edge and contribute to American economic growth.” -Barack Obama’s campaign space plan
Going back to the economic climate, and Obama’s obvious personal and political motivations to have the recession turn around during his first term, having NASA “contribute to American economic growth” instead of leeching an additional $3 billion a year out of it may direct his next moves regarding the organization’s “revitalization”. (Which now seems like it could be a more dramatic change than was imagined before—with Obama certainly no stranger to the idea of change.)
Recent developments, such as the ISS contracts given in January and the awarding of stimulus funds towards private space, could be steps in a stronger private ‘amplification’ direction than was anticipated before. Amplifying NASA with private space is the option that helps the economy the most (or at all), and with Obama’s future tied to the economy, it seems logical to me that we could be seeing even more along that path, now that Constellation has been rather grimly assessed by Obama’s review panel…
A Stimulating Development?: NASA Assigns $50 Million in Stimulus Funds for Commercial Orbital Passenger Service August 10, 2009
Posted by Nick Azer in : economy, Obama, Paragon, private sector, Space Shuttle, SpaceX , 1 comment so far
In an interesting economic development, NASA said today that $50 million in economic stimulus funds will be going towards developing commercial passenger service to orbit (to replace the retired Space Shuttle and to avoid pricey seats on the Russian Soyuz).
Private company SpaceX won one of two cargo contracts for the ISS back in January, and the Dragon craft they are using is designed to be modifiable to a human-passenger mode. NASA is holding a workshop this Thursday for SpaceX and other interested firms (quoted by the Reuters article as Ball Aerospace, Airborne Systems, Boeing, Tether Applications, Retro Aerospace, Emergent Space Technologies, Davidson Technologies, and Paragon Space Development Corp., many of whom appear specialized for certain systems).
Obama’s campaign space plan had hinted at this in the past—the idea of private U.S. space industry as stimulus. Frontiers do have a way of pushing economies along, so this could to be a road to developments much like the railroad projects of old. Considering the potential, Obama’s campaign plan, and certain past Obama decisions, there could be a lot more of this to come, and soon…
Former Director of Kennedy Space Center Joins Odyssey Moon (News) September 24, 2008
Posted by Nick Azer in : Astrobotic, Current News, economy, Google Lunar X Prize, NASA, Obama, Odyssey Moon, private sector , add a commentOdyssey Moon, Ltd. (a high-profile ‘private commercial lunar enterprise’, and the first official team that was announced for the Google Lunar X Prize) has announced through a media release that Jay Honeycutt, former Director of the Kennedy Space Center, has joined their team as their director of U.S. operations.
“I believe the private sector has an important role to play in a permanent lunar program and Odyssey Moon has put together some pretty impressive people and plans to help make this happen. We look forward to working with NASA and other space agencies as both partners and customers in this effort.”
-Jay Honeycutt
That quote from the media release reminds me of what Barack Obama suggested in his space plan– ‘amplifying NASA’s reach’ with the private sector. Mr. Honeycutt there is speaking along much the same lines.
Other lunar enterprise companies, such as Astrobotic (also a Google Lunar X Prize contestant), express serving as a partner for government (as opposed to, say, strictly commercial) as part of their goals and general gameplan. It should be interesting to watch as NASA and the private sector mix and mingle further, and to see to what extent NASA ends up partnering with the private sector (and what positive impacts that could have, especially in an era of a lagging economy and potentially squeezed government budgets).
Picture of the Week: Pinch Us September 20, 2008
Posted by Nick Azer in : Bush, Constellation, economy, funding, NASA, Obama, Picture of the Week, private sector , add a comment
Yes, the Moon Colonization Picture of the Week is of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, President George W. Bush, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Christopher Cox. This might not seem on-topic at first, but unfortunately, it very much could be.
The event pictured is the announcement of the financial rescue package being put into place to stabilize the struggling American economy.
This package could potentially become extremely relevant (and rather ominous) to NASA, as this rescue could end up costing the government upwards of a trillion dollars, which in turn could then end up limiting government spending for some time. This crisis, as a result, could then become an eventual bane to NASA’s rather large amount of funding (and the particularly pricey Constellation program).
Luckily, there’s still other nations and plenty of private enterprise rolling along towards the Moon, so even if NASA takes a hit, the lunar surface should be plenty busy for some time to come. And as a matter of fact, Barack Obama’s space plan suggests he may attempt to utilize the private space sector as a way to spur the economy back out of this slump, and so in the end, the American space focus may simply shift, rather than slump; as any slack lost by a NASA spending decline could be readily picked right back up by American private enterprise.
It will be interesting to see how the unfolding of this rescue package ends up shifting America’s impact on the base race and the future of development on the Moon.
Barack Obama Outlines Extensive, Detailed Space Plan (News) August 17, 2008
Posted by Nick Azer in : Astrobotic, Current News, economy, McCain, National Aeronautics and Space Council, Obama, Operationally Responsive Space, private sector, space conflict , 4commentsToday, presidential candidate Barack Obama has released a new, extensive plan for the future of American space exploration. (John McCain’s plan; I’ll put up a full analysis of McCain’s corresponding plan in the coming days.)
Obama’s plan is a big one: a total of 3,486 words and six pages as a PDF (versus McCain’s, which has 989 words), with plenty of details and specifics. Some moon colonization-specific highlights:
- This statement, in particular, stuck out to me, in reference to his plan: “…achieving this vision, Obama will reach out to include international partners and to engage the private sector to amplify NASA’s reach.” That sounds a lot like what companies such as Astrobotic (see bottom of that page) are suggesting is a better system (and are positioning themselves to be the deliverers of): have government agencies utilize private sector companies for services such as data collection, in order to save on costs and spur private sector development. It’s very interesting to see such particular wording in Obama’s plan: ‘amplify NASA’s reach’.
- Obama goes on to state that he would reinstate the National Aeronautics and Space Council, originally in operation from 1958 to 1973 and last seen briefly from 1989 to 1992. It would report directly to the president, and “coordinate civilian, military, commercial and national security space activities”. This is a very significant idea, that could go a long way in spurring our heels in the Base Race.
- The plan states support for international cooperation, noting NASA’s current efforts and that Obama will “not only continue but intensify this effort”.
- Specific support is put forward for the prevention of armed conflict in space, with Obama stating he would “work with other nations to develop ‘rules of the road’” for “acceptable behavior”; oppose “the stationing of weapons in space”; and work to protect assets from attack and enable rapid recovery from them, specifically noting the Operationally Responsive Space program as a method of this.
- Regarding commercial access to space, Obama says we must “unleash the genius of private enterprise to secure the United States’ leadership in space”. Now that’s a statement.
To summarize, the most significant info one can take from this plan is probably the rather specific nature of his commerical sector statements: “Unleash the genius…”, “amplify NASA’s reach”… Mr. Obama sounds very serious about spurring the private sector, and his related points in the plan are some of the least generic of report.
Often time, big economic booms in America are spurred by the rise of new industry (the World War II build-up, the 90′s internet boom), and with the economy in the state it’s in, perhaps Obama sees the potentially explosive commercial space industry as one of the ways out.
